Monday, November 01, 2004

Let's see -- how wrong can you be?

John R. Miller of The Corner predicts Bush in a comparatively easy victory: If these results hold--no vote-splitting in Maine, no faithless electors, etc.--then Bush wins 300 [electoral votes] to 238.

When "Corner" blowhards are defiantly insisting on anything other than an absolutely razer-close race, you know wishful thinking has taken over.

Elsewhere on the Corner, they're starting to sweat....

Talking to a GOPer pollster type this morning, he warns me, "i want to prepare you for a likely Bush loss." He's worried Ohio and Wisconsin are worse than we know because of the economy. And, generally--which is a point multiple people have consistently brought up-the numbers are just so much closer than they should be for an incumbent.

And the latest news? Of all the polls, Fox News's poll has Bush down two points to Kerry!

Tim Blair also inspires confidence:

My election prediction, by the way: narrow popular-vote win to Bush, biggish electoral college win to Bush.
Tim Blair's prediction track record has taken at least one major blow this week:

OSAMA BIN LADEN IS DEAD, and al Qaeda confirms it

For mine? I know better than to utter predictions. But if it's true what they say, that the polls are actually underestimating Kerry's level of support, then it's Kerry in a comparative landslide.